Bravo, Alex! Your points are spot on. Nobody knows exactly where all this is heading. There will be both good and bad results (IMO most likely net positive). I don't think AI will crash the economy like a single sweeping wave, but it will feel more like thousands of weather changes in different places: tornadoes, rainy days, cold fronts, heat waves, etc... but plenty of sunny and pleasant days will always be there.
Business is a human endeavor, and anything involving humans is messy.
Capability doesn't mean instant and widespread adoption. There are many jobs and tasks that could have already been automated before AI, but they haven't been for a variety of economic, operational and safety considerations.
While none of this is very comforting to anyone whose at risk of losing their job, the moral of the story is still the same: the best way to protect yourself is to embrace AI with an open mind and use it to increase your optionality.
And no... you don't have to get a certificate in machine learning or software engineering to master AI.
Thanks Roberto, love this positive framing, we need more of this!
I feel that it applies to anything as well, not just AI. Reminds me of a comment someone made on another of my posts which I believe was referencing an ancient chinese proverb:
"Once upon a time there was a Chinese farmer whose horse ran away. That evening, all of his neighbors came around to commiserate. They said, “We are so sorry to hear your horse has run away. This is most unfortunate.” The farmer said, “Maybe.”
The next day the horse came back bringing seven wild horses with it, and in the evening everybody came back and said, “Oh, isn’t that lucky. What a great turn of events. You now have eight horses!” The farmer again said, “Maybe.”
The following day his son tried to break one of the horses, and while riding it, he was thrown and broke his leg. The neighbors then said, “Oh dear, that’s too bad,” and the farmer responded, “Maybe.”
The next day the conscription officers came around to conscript people into the army, and they rejected his son because he had a broken leg. Again all the neighbors came around and said, “Isn’t that great!” Again, he said, “Maybe.”
The whole process of nature is an integrated process of immense complexity, and it’s really impossible to tell whether anything that happens in it is good or bad — because you never know what will be the consequence of the misfortune; or, you never know what will be the consequences of good fortune."
Solid read. I like the active optimism framing especially and that’s where I’m at right now. I believe we all have more meaningful agency over the outcome of our lives
I'm here for all of this, Alex. I've been thinking along the very same lines. We simply don't know and there's no point in predicting a dystopia or a utopia at this point. Let's just learn, be open, and move forward. I've been thinking a lot about how to surf mentally... lots of riding the waves, choosing which waves to hop on and hop off of, and being okay with falling off one every now and then.
Very interesting piece, thank you for this thoughtful analysis. I would count myself more as a pessimist and for 2 reasons :
1. The current political landscape (and more generally capitalism) does not favor the things you point as necessary (reskilling, better safety nets...). So I find it hard to believe that the benefits will be redistributed to the workers, for instance.
2. As pointed by another commenter, we are in a world where we are reaching physical limits. This was not the case during the previous industrial revolutions, and we are still unable to take it into account. The resources needed to generalyse AI might tip the scales even more.
That said, I do agree with the fact that the best thing to do is to act for the future to be what we want it to be. So it can mean learning what AI can or cannot do but it should also be via things like unionizing, joining a political organisation and so on.
I think this is an interesting and positive perspective on AI's impact on the labour market, and I largely agree with the premise, but it fails to take into account that many AI skeptics, myself included, have foundational concerns with the infrastructure of AI itself. I don't care if it can do away with my mundane entry level tasks if it costs Small Town America their water supply. The data these systems are trained on are the work of others who were largely not compensated for it. The capacity for data leaks and surveillance has never been higher. At this point in time, there is just no benefit to using AI in work that outweighs the massive costs. It may still be inevitable that I will have to use it at some point, but I'm content to wait for the time at which I don't feel like I'm sacrificing my values to do so.
Interesting read and I agree with your conclusion about being an active optimist.
That said, it’s easier to be one when looking at things in aggregate. Yes, historically, technological advancements triggered improvements in quality of life metrics.
The issue is — and you pointed to it when saying the advances from the Industrial Revolution took at least a generation of committed social movements to put in check — this transition will be hard on a lot of people on an individual level. And that pain could last a long time.
So, although an active optimism is the best way forward, it’s understandable why it could be hard to be one in practice.
Appreciates this one a lot. It’s a great reminder that we all have some agency in this, including which companies we choose to continue working for & supporting. Easier said than done, of course, but as a tech worker I’m definitely seeing that some companies are much more thoughtful about how they embrace these transformations than others are.
I read somewhere that the only difference between fear and faith is the difference between pessimism and optimism. Both are around the unknown. Idk that stuck with me and that’s what you are talking about here.
I've recently taken on the opinion that social media is a good guide for how AI will affect people. A minority of agentic, self aware, disciplined individuals will benefit from the positives. The majority of people will be sucked in to the comfort, convenience, and entertainment to come, with will produce a net negative. I don't think there will have ever been a time where it's more important to pursue the virtues of old, in order to have a fulfilling, human life.
It’s like a transition from carriages to automobiles. Some people, like people who bred horses, or manufactured wheels, were directly in the hit path and lost their entire livelihood. Some, they could continue their path by innovating on what they already made. Think upholstered seats and carriage doors. Some actually used the transition to elevate and brand themselves as super special - like Hermes, who did start their leather goods in the carriage business in 1800s France.
Bravo, Alex! Your points are spot on. Nobody knows exactly where all this is heading. There will be both good and bad results (IMO most likely net positive). I don't think AI will crash the economy like a single sweeping wave, but it will feel more like thousands of weather changes in different places: tornadoes, rainy days, cold fronts, heat waves, etc... but plenty of sunny and pleasant days will always be there.
Business is a human endeavor, and anything involving humans is messy.
Capability doesn't mean instant and widespread adoption. There are many jobs and tasks that could have already been automated before AI, but they haven't been for a variety of economic, operational and safety considerations.
While none of this is very comforting to anyone whose at risk of losing their job, the moral of the story is still the same: the best way to protect yourself is to embrace AI with an open mind and use it to increase your optionality.
And no... you don't have to get a certificate in machine learning or software engineering to master AI.
Thanks Roberto, love this positive framing, we need more of this!
I feel that it applies to anything as well, not just AI. Reminds me of a comment someone made on another of my posts which I believe was referencing an ancient chinese proverb:
"Once upon a time there was a Chinese farmer whose horse ran away. That evening, all of his neighbors came around to commiserate. They said, “We are so sorry to hear your horse has run away. This is most unfortunate.” The farmer said, “Maybe.”
The next day the horse came back bringing seven wild horses with it, and in the evening everybody came back and said, “Oh, isn’t that lucky. What a great turn of events. You now have eight horses!” The farmer again said, “Maybe.”
The following day his son tried to break one of the horses, and while riding it, he was thrown and broke his leg. The neighbors then said, “Oh dear, that’s too bad,” and the farmer responded, “Maybe.”
The next day the conscription officers came around to conscript people into the army, and they rejected his son because he had a broken leg. Again all the neighbors came around and said, “Isn’t that great!” Again, he said, “Maybe.”
The whole process of nature is an integrated process of immense complexity, and it’s really impossible to tell whether anything that happens in it is good or bad — because you never know what will be the consequence of the misfortune; or, you never know what will be the consequences of good fortune."
Solid read. I like the active optimism framing especially and that’s where I’m at right now. I believe we all have more meaningful agency over the outcome of our lives
Thanks Dave! Glad you enjoyed it!
I'm here for all of this, Alex. I've been thinking along the very same lines. We simply don't know and there's no point in predicting a dystopia or a utopia at this point. Let's just learn, be open, and move forward. I've been thinking a lot about how to surf mentally... lots of riding the waves, choosing which waves to hop on and hop off of, and being okay with falling off one every now and then.
Absolutely, it’s really important to find the balance between awareness and obsession.
Very interesting piece, thank you for this thoughtful analysis. I would count myself more as a pessimist and for 2 reasons :
1. The current political landscape (and more generally capitalism) does not favor the things you point as necessary (reskilling, better safety nets...). So I find it hard to believe that the benefits will be redistributed to the workers, for instance.
2. As pointed by another commenter, we are in a world where we are reaching physical limits. This was not the case during the previous industrial revolutions, and we are still unable to take it into account. The resources needed to generalyse AI might tip the scales even more.
That said, I do agree with the fact that the best thing to do is to act for the future to be what we want it to be. So it can mean learning what AI can or cannot do but it should also be via things like unionizing, joining a political organisation and so on.
I think this is an interesting and positive perspective on AI's impact on the labour market, and I largely agree with the premise, but it fails to take into account that many AI skeptics, myself included, have foundational concerns with the infrastructure of AI itself. I don't care if it can do away with my mundane entry level tasks if it costs Small Town America their water supply. The data these systems are trained on are the work of others who were largely not compensated for it. The capacity for data leaks and surveillance has never been higher. At this point in time, there is just no benefit to using AI in work that outweighs the massive costs. It may still be inevitable that I will have to use it at some point, but I'm content to wait for the time at which I don't feel like I'm sacrificing my values to do so.
Interesting read and I agree with your conclusion about being an active optimist.
That said, it’s easier to be one when looking at things in aggregate. Yes, historically, technological advancements triggered improvements in quality of life metrics.
The issue is — and you pointed to it when saying the advances from the Industrial Revolution took at least a generation of committed social movements to put in check — this transition will be hard on a lot of people on an individual level. And that pain could last a long time.
So, although an active optimism is the best way forward, it’s understandable why it could be hard to be one in practice.
Good stuff. I agree that things will work out if we work to make them work out. Nothing comes for free.
Appreciates this one a lot. It’s a great reminder that we all have some agency in this, including which companies we choose to continue working for & supporting. Easier said than done, of course, but as a tech worker I’m definitely seeing that some companies are much more thoughtful about how they embrace these transformations than others are.
I read somewhere that the only difference between fear and faith is the difference between pessimism and optimism. Both are around the unknown. Idk that stuck with me and that’s what you are talking about here.
I've recently taken on the opinion that social media is a good guide for how AI will affect people. A minority of agentic, self aware, disciplined individuals will benefit from the positives. The majority of people will be sucked in to the comfort, convenience, and entertainment to come, with will produce a net negative. I don't think there will have ever been a time where it's more important to pursue the virtues of old, in order to have a fulfilling, human life.
We have always underestimated the future while overestimated the present.
Active optimism, I love this and also love AI especially for the boring parts of my job leaves a bit more time for creative solutions.
It’s like a transition from carriages to automobiles. Some people, like people who bred horses, or manufactured wheels, were directly in the hit path and lost their entire livelihood. Some, they could continue their path by innovating on what they already made. Think upholstered seats and carriage doors. Some actually used the transition to elevate and brand themselves as super special - like Hermes, who did start their leather goods in the carriage business in 1800s France.
Love the idea of being actively optimistic rather than hoping for things to get better but not pushing for it to
Ingenium mala saepe movent